How General Elections Impact the Financial Services Sector

General Elections undoubtedly impact the financial services sector. We review the effects and discuss how to navigate the challenges during political transition.

Key takeaways: 

• Fiscal policy shifts can upend financial planning. Changes to taxation (income tax, corporate tax, capital gains) or national insurance under a new government can materially affect business models, profitability, and investor behaviour.
• Currency volatility is a key risk during political transitions. Uncertainty around election outcomes and policy direction can lead to exchange rate fluctuations, which in turn affect cross-border investment, import/export costs, and international finance exposure. 
• Proactive risk planning and scenario analysis are essential. Financial services firms should actively model “what if” scenarios based on parties’ manifestos, map the impacts, and begin contingency planning ahead of election results.

A General Election brings inevitable change, affecting everything from taxation and regulations to investor sentiment and political stability. These shifts impact the financial services sector. Remaining well-informed and flexible is crucial for successfully navigating the obstacles that come with these transitions.

What is the impact of policy changes on the financial sector?

There are several factors that determine the impact general elections have on the financial services sector in the UK. These include:

Taxation policies

Any changes to the overall tax framework, such as national insurance rates, business taxes or income tax, can have a direct impact on finances.

Higher tax rates can deter businesses from selling or investing in new business ventures. Whereas, more stability in corporation tax could bolster investor confidence, making it easier for businesses to attract investment.

Likewise, maintaining a lower capital gains tax rate is attractive for investors since they can expect to keep more of their returns. If capital gains tax were to remain at its current rate, we could also see an increase in business sales.

CEOs and founders could be more keen to sell shares in their business, creating opportunities for acquisitions and mergers and promoting enterprise in the sector.

Adjustments in national insurance rates impact the cost of employment and overall labour expenses, in addition to impacting consumer spending. These changes will affect various parts of the economy, influencing both business decisions and economic stability.

Regulatory changes

Regulatory changes resulting from general elections can lead to new compliance requirements. These changes might include implementing new procedures, extensive employee training, or the need to hire a compliance officer responsible for ensuring ongoing adherence to new regulatory requirements.

New governments can also affect financial regulations which will have an impact on banks, investment firms and financial institutions throughout the country. Reducing regulatory measures can boost market activity, while increased regulation could create new challenges.

Exchange rates

General elections can also influence currency markets. Uncertainty or expected policy changes often lead to fluctuations in exchange rates. When investors are unsure about the outcome of an election or expect major changes in the economic policy, currency values can become unstable.

These fluctuations affect both the cost of importing and exporting goods but also international investment. As a result, businesses involved in global trade must monitor all political developments to ensure they are ready to adjust their strategies as needed.

Economic policies

Longer-term economic policies established by newly elected governments can shape the broader economic landscape, influencing factors such as job creation and inflation. These policies set the direction for economic development and can either foster an environment for growth or impose constraints that ultimately slow progress.

How should firms prepare for financial sector uncertainty?

General elections undoubtedly pose significant challenges for businesses. It's crucial to stay vigilant about the potential outcomes and implications of electing a new government. Keeping informed about the latest developments is essential to prepare and reduce the impact on your business.

Financial risk planning

Take advantage of this period to identify potential risks that could arise from the outcome of a general election and analyse the impact this could have on your business. Stay informed about each party's proposed policies, assess how these changes could affect the industry, and begin to implement strategies to safeguard your business against them.

Market intelligence

Obtaining market intelligence becomes essential after a general election. This allows you to evaluate present market conditions and manage the potential effects of political changes on your business. Understanding these dynamics will guide you in taking necessary actions to strengthen your position in the post-election environment.

Open communication

Maintaining openness and transparency during this time helps build trust and confidence amid uncertainty. By effectively communicating with your staff, suppliers and key stakeholders, you ensure that your business is prepared to adapt to new developments no matter the election outcome.

General Elections Impact the Financial Services: FAQs

What tax changes should firms monitor around a general election?

Keep an eye on proposed changes to income tax, corporation tax, capital gains tax and national insurance, as these directly affect business costs, investment decisions and M&A incentives.

Will regulation often change after an election?

Yes. New governments can introduce regulatory shifts that create new compliance requirements, require updated procedures or training, or lead to new compliance roles within firms

What immediate steps should firms take to prepare?

Conduct financial risk planning, monitor party policies and model potential impacts to your business to identify risks and mitigation strategies.

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